A Challenge of Existential Proportions
If we thought that the Covid-19 pandemic was a big challenge, please think again. That lethality factor hovers around the 2-3.5% level at worst. The existential challenges of climate change boast a potential lethality rate for all mammalian life of close to 100%. The question then is about the quality of our chosen collective response.
Given the added reality that Time is decidedly not on our side, as the latest IPCC trajectory to thermal runaway (an irreversible tipping point) despairingly leaves us with less than 40 years to go before we breach that tipping point.
The 30-Year Time Lag
And, given also the 30-year time lag between our anthropogenic forcings upon the complex climate system - whether positive or negative - and the effects thereof being actually observed in the climate, we arrive at the stark reality that we might only have 10 years or so of an "actionable window" remaining within which to move our action plans forward collectively.
But 10 years is patently insufficient to avoid our breaching of this tipping point, at current levels of fossil fuel combustion. 90% of our global energy consumption is STILL fossil fuel based.
The Inescapable Conclusion
Which then leads to the inescapable conclusion as to the requisite "quality" of our chosen collective response: It HAS to be a 3-pronged Collective Simultaneous Response.
That is, we have to simultaneously encourage engagement in the following Critical Action Pathways:
- (1) Carbon Mitigation - Actively reducing and capturing carbon emissions from existing sources
- (2) Adaptation - Building resilience and adapting our systems, infrastructure, and communities to the climate impacts that are already locked in
- (3) Escalation of Zero Emissions Production Capacity - Progressively building up to fossil fuel replacement levels through clean energy technologies
The Hard Truth
The hard truth is that if we don't find and implement the right scalable solutions to (1), we will simply run out of Time before we come anywhere even remotely close to accomplishing (3).
Actions in (1) and (2) therefore MUST hold equal weightage right now in our conscious choice of response, as we move forward collectively, in order to strategically attempt to thereby "Extend" the remaining Time Window for positive anthropogenic Action in Carbon Mitigation.
A Decade of Wisdom
In order to give us some tangible hope of accomplishing (3) ahead of tipping point ever being breached, let's use these next 10 years with wisdom.
The window of opportunity is closing. The quality of our collective response will determine whether we can extend it long enough to make a meaningful difference. Carbon Mitigation, Adaptation, and Zero Emissions Escalation must advance simultaneously - there is no sequential path that gets us there in time.